Republicans hold massive lead in competitive House districts, new poll shows

HWG3G6 Louisville, Kentucky, USA. 20th March, 2017: President Donald J. Trump addresses a crowd at a rally inside Freedom Hall in Louisville, Kentucky, on March 20, 2017. Credit: Joe Tabb/Alamy Live News

Photo: Alamy

With just over a month left before the midterm elections, Republicans hold a commanding 21-point lead over Democrats in hotly contested House districts, according to a new ABC/Washington Post poll.

The poll released Sunday showed that, in districts deemed “at least somewhat competitive” by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans were favored by registered voters 55-34 percent.

Across all House races, Republicans held a 1-point lead among registered voters with 47 percent support compared to Democrats’ 46 percent. However, one likely voter model favored the GOP 51-46 percent.

The poll was conducted Sept. 18-21 among a random sample of 1,006 adults, including 908 registered voters, with a 3.5 percent margin of error. Of those sampled, 28 percent were Democrats, 24 percent were Republicans, and 41 percent were Independents. Among registered voters, the divisions were 27-26-40 percent, respectively.

The pollsters say that since 1946, presidents with more than 50 percent job approval have lost an average of 14 congressional seats during the midterm elections, while those with below 50 percent approval have lost an average of 37 seats.

Unfortunately for Biden and the Democrats, only 39 percent of registered voters approved of the former senator’s job performance compared to 53 percent who disapproved. 

Further, a shocking 56 percent of Democrats said they would prefer a different nominee for the 2024 presidential election, while only 35 percent stated they would prefer Biden be on the ticket. 

In a hypothetical rematch between Biden and President Donald J. Trump, registered voters picked Trump 48-46 percent. Among likely voters, however, the reverse was true.

Although neither Trump nor Biden has officially announced a 2024 presidential bid, speculation of a potential rematch has dominated much of the conversation on the topic.

Trump, for his part, has hinted heavily at another presidential run, firing up the crowds at his Save America rallies with the suggestion that he “may just have to” run again.

Biden, on the other hand, appeared less certain when addressing the subject in a recent interview with “60 Minutes,” shying away from making an outright declaration of his candidacy.

“Look, my intention, as I said to begin with, is that I would run again,” he said. “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”

However, while the nation awaits their decisions, voters will soon be heading to the polls for the midterms, and according to the ABC/Washington Post survey, there is one particular issue they will have on their minds: the economy.

According to the poll, 84 percent of voters ranked the economy as their primary concern, with Republicans winning the public’s trust on that matter by 16 points. 

Likewise, voters picked the GOP as the party they most trusted to address the issues of inflation and crime, with independents favoring Republicans on the latter by a staggering 34 points. However, on the issues of education, abortion, immigration, and climate change, Democrats were the preferred choice.

With just over a month left before Election Day and control of Congress hanging in the balance, candidates on both sides of the aisle will undoubtedly be ramping up their campaigns to secure as much support as possible.

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