Mike Carey, a political outsider and lobbyist, is strongly favored to win the U.S. House of Representatives special election on Tuesday for Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, according to pre-election polls.
Carey, a Republican backed by President Donald Trump in June, would defeat Democrat state Rep. Allison Russo, according to an Emerson College/NBC4 poll from October. Carey polled ahead of Russo with 50 percent to 38.9 percent.
Among undecided voters, 59.3 percent were leaning towards Carey, while 40.7 percent were leaning towards Russo.
The Ohio-15 special election was announced following the retirement of Republican Rep. Steve Stivers, who vacated his seat in May to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Stivers, a five-term representative, won re-election in the conservative-leaning district in 2020 by more than 26 points.
President Trump endorsed Carey in June and appeared alongside him during a rally at Elyria, Ohio in June. Carey later won a crowded primary against ten other candidates with nearly 40 percent of the vote.
“Mike Carey, who is running for Congress in the Great State of Ohio, was born and raised in the 15th District,” Trump wrote in a statement about Carey.”He will be a courageous fighter for the people and our economy, is strong on the Border, and tough on Crime. As a Veteran, he totally supports our Military and his fellow Vets. A strong supporter of the Second Amendment! Mike will do an outstanding job in Congress. He has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”
Democrat Russo, endorsed by Joe Biden, will face a tough battle against Carey in the Republican district, as liberal turnout is expected to be lower, a trend of off-year elections. The political party opposite the president’s party tends to outperform the opposition in off-year and midterm elections.
The Ohio-15 special election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 2, and the winner of the race will immediately take office.