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Optimism among small businesses has surged following President Donald J. Trump’s re-election, according to the latest NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report.
The report was highlighted by the Trump-Vance transition team in a news release on Tuesday.
After nearly three years of staying below its 50-year average, the Small Business Optimism Index saw a dramatic eight-point increase in November — marking the largest one-month gain in the survey’s history. With the Index rising to 101.7, it surpassed the 50-year average (98) for the first time in 34 months, reaching its highest level since June 2021.
Just before the election, small business owners were facing unprecedented uncertainty, with sentiment reaching record highs for two consecutive months. However, in November, uncertainty dropped by 12 points, signaling that businesses are feeling more confident following President Trump’s victory.
“The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg wrote in the report.
“Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations,” he added.
The number of small businesses expecting an improvement in the economy surged by 41 points, reaching a net 36%, the highest level since June 2020. The share of businesses that believe it’s a good time to expand also rose by eight points, reaching a net 14%, the highest since June 2021. Additionally, the percentage of businesses anticipating higher real sales volumes jumped by 18 points, hitting a net 14%, the highest since February 2020.
According to NFIB, President Trump’s decisive win provides much-needed certainty for the future, with business owners optimistic about tax cuts, deregulation, and pro-growth policies that are expected to foster strong economic growth and expansion.
This optimism is reflected not only in small business sentiment but also in financial markets. Both the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have seen significant growth since the election, further indicating investor confidence in the policies of the incoming Trump administration.
