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Nearly one year before the 2026 House elections, the races are already shaping up in unexpected ways, defying historical odds and bucking trends.
Historically, the party opposite the president gains seats in the House during midterm elections. With Republican President Donald Trump, Democrats would likely be victorious and gain control of the chamber.
After all, House control has gone in the opposite direction of the president’s party in every midterm election, with the exception of 2002 and 1978. Assuming this trend continues in 2026, if history repeats itself.
However, history may soon change.
According to the 2026 Cook Political Report House ratings, Republicans are poised to win at least 216 seats in the lower chamber, while Democrats are most likely to win 202.
If these ratings remain, Republicans would only need to take two more seats to retain control of the House.
The group reported that two seats currently held by Democrats in Texas would likely flip to Republicans, and another one held by Democrats in North Carolina would also turn, netting the GOP three new seats.
Meanwhile, only one race, Nebraska’s suburban second congressional district, was predicted to turn to the Democrats.
Likewise, among these 435 House races, the group predicted that 17 seats were “tossups,” with eight currently held by Republicans and nine by incumbent Democrats.
The midterms could still become much closer, however. The Cook score neglects to include California’s newly proposed congressional map, which, if passed, would eliminate five of the nine current Republican-held seats, turning the districts into blue-leaning districts.
It also fails to mention Missouri’s newly proposed map, which has remained in contention after the Republican governor signed it into law in September. If accepted, the law would net Republicans an additional seat in the Show-Me State.
