Photo: Alamy
A working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has found that the tidal wave of illegal immigration during the Biden administration seemed to significantly affect housing and rent prices.
The paper noted that the surge in illegal immigration “acted as a supply shock boom to local labor markets as a whole.”
The report estimated that the rapid flow of illegal workers increased local employment one-for-one, with no evidence suggesting that this caused a notable decline in wages.
However, their research additionally found that “unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local house prices and rents, without significantly expanding new housing supply. Thus, the unauthorized immigration boom acted as a housing demand shock, boosting prices in the face of a relatively inelastic short-run housing supply.”
Alarmingly, the report noted that unauthorized immigrant worker flow “can explain about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of the total growth in rents over the boom period for the average market.”
The authors of this paper utilized immigration court data and other administrative data to measure this phenomenon. The report is a preliminary draft.
Originally published in March 2026, the federal data on the effects of illegal immigration on the U.S. housing market was thrust into the spotlight as high-profile leaders such as Vice President J.D. Vance commented on the findings on X.
“From day one, President Trump and I have said this very thing,” the vice president remarked. “Stopping the flood of illegal migrants into this country will bring down home prices and make housing affordable again for young Americans who are trying to start a family.”
He praised the efforts of the Trump administration and the Department of Homeland Security for stopping the flow of illegal immigration at the border. “There is still work to be done, but this is huge progress toward restoring the American Dream as a reality for our nation’s young people who deserve a stake in their country,” Vance wrote.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., also addressed the report as it circulated in the media, commenting, “You cannot flood local housing markets with millions of people and expect prices not to rise. Now the Fed is confirming what common sense already told us: Open borders make the American Dream more expensive.”
