Democrat insiders are beginning to dread the upcoming midterm elections. And given the negative stories hitting the party from all angles, this is not an irrational fear.
An unnamed Democrat congressional aid told The Hill that “to be blunt, I’m not feeling good about where we are. It was never going to be easy or anything. It was always kind of contingent on what got done. I just think we’re starting to see how fragile this is.”
If winning elections is “contingent on what got done,” then Democrats ought to worry.
The moderate and far-left wings of the party are at each other’s throats over a proposed infrastructure bill and $3.5 trillion progressive-favored reconciliation bill.
Congressional Democrats are not projecting party unity at a time when they have little room for error.
The Republicans only need to flip five seats to win back the House and given that redistricting maps are mostly being redrawn by Republicans, the odds are not in their favor.
Democrat socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders took provocative action recently by publishing an op-ed in the home state of Sen. Joe Manchin, who is widely considered a moderate Democrat, to criticize his decisions.
Sanders put pressure on Manchin, writing, “Poll after poll shows overwhelming support for this legislation. Yet, the political problem we face is that in a 50-50 Senate we need every Democratic senator to vote ‘yes.’ We now have only 48. Two Democratic senators remain in opposition, including Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.”
Manchin fired back at Bernie by tweeting that “This isn’t the first time an out-of-stater has tried to tell West Virginians what is best for them despite having no relationship to our state.”
Midterm elections are notoriously difficult for the party of a new president to win the majority in Congress. And this historical problem could be even more challenging for Democrats to overcome given Joe Biden’s falling approval ratings.
The latest poll from Gallup shows that Biden’s approval rating dropped from 56 percent in Q1 to 44.7 percent in the third quarter of 2021 which represents an 11.3 percent decline.
No president since the end of World War Two has experienced such decline in such a short amount of time.
Then there are the implications of what will result from the Virginia gubernatorial race between Trump-endorsed Republican Glenn Youngkin and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe.
McAuliffe, a Democrat, once appeared to be the clear favorite in the race, but that is no longer the case.
Youngkin has gained steam in the last month of the race, in large part by riding the wave of anger from Virginia parents who are upset with what school boards such as the one in Loudoun County, Va., are teaching their children.
Real Clear Politics Average of polls have McAuliffe with a narrow lead, but two new polls show the race tied, and one even shows Youngkin with a slight lead.
The Virginia race is being closely watched by politicos to see if a Republican will benefit from the anti-Critical Race Theory rage, thus representing a bellwether race for the 2022 midterms.
And then there is the specter of a potential Trump campaign in 2024.
The list of Democrat strategists who reportedly fear a likely bid from President Trump to take back the White House in 2024 is growing. And considering Joe Biden’s recent dip in the polls combined with a lack of strong Democrat candidates, they have ample reasons for taking this view.
Add all these variables together and you get a bunch of nervous Democrats.