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The heated race between incumbent Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (R) and President Trump’s endorsed candidate, retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, continues to steal the spotlight as the two men fight for the primary votes of Kentuckians in the 4th District.
A new poll from Quantus Insights has shown a sudden upswing in support for Gallrein, projecting that President Trump’s hand-picked opponent to Massie may receive 48 percent of the Republican primary vote, while Massie may receive 43 percent.
The shift in data has appeared in the eleventh-hour stretch, with just days to go until the primary election in Kentucky. As reported by RSBN, Rep. Massie had been enjoying a relatively comfortable lead in most polls until this point (Big Data showed Massie with a four-point lead this spring, and Quantus previously had Massie leading Gallrein at 46.8 percent to 37.7 percent).
Perhaps the most telling takeaways from Quantus Insight’s most recent poll, however, is the demographic breakdown between Massie and Gallrein.
In Quantus data shared by Interactive Polls, among younger voters, Massie seems to hold a considerable lead. For example, the data found that potential Kentucky primary voters ages 26-35 percent support Massie by +56. He also held +38 with ages 36-45 and +17 with ages 46-55.
Gallrein, by contrast, enjoys a solid lead (+18 and up) with voters ages 56 and older.
What does this mean for the two candidates? Despite polling, it suggests that the outcome of the race will likely be decided by mere voter turnout. Which demographic will show up in higher numbers at the polls to vote for their favored candidate?
Trial lawyer Robert Barnes observed on X of the odds in the Kentucky congressional race, “…Key to the race is turnout. If under 50 voters turnout, Massie wins. The poll assumes they won’t. Up to the voters to prove otherwise.”
President Donald Trump’s decision to go to political war with Massie comes on the heels of the Kentucky congressman’s opposition to several pieces of legislation pushed by the White House. “Unlike ‘lightweight’ Massie, a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly, CAPTAIN ED GALLREIN IS A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!” President Trump fired off last November, endorsing Gallrein in the race.
As reported by RSBN, Gallrein has been somewhat absent from the campaign trail and has declined to debate Rep. Massie in person. However, Gallrein has reportedly garnered massive campaign donations from Trump-friendly organizations like the Republican Jewish Coalition and AIPAC, which may have given the mostly unknown challenger a monetary advantage over Massie.
Conservative influencer and commentator Mike Cernovich observed on X, “Massie’s primary is an interesting one to watch because it’ll show if podcasters and social media can drive out the vote in a material way. It’s unlimited money on the other end. If Massie loses, every Congress member will be cowed into fear. If he wins, it’s a new media era.”
