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The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average polls reveal President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in all seven swing states less than three weeks ahead of Election Day.
The average is based on a compilation of major polls in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If the polls hold, Trump could win by a landslide in the electoral vote, predicted at 312 to 226 over Harris. At least 270 electoral votes are necessary to win the presidential election.
Trump’s largest current lead in the RCP poll is in Nevada where holds a 1.4-point advantage over Harris. Wisconsin is the state where his current lead is weakest, holding only a 0.9-point lead.
The overall polling in all seven swing states remains less than 2 percent. The polls the compilation is based on are largely all within the margin of error showing a toss-up or virtual tie between Harris and Trump.
The electoral vote and popular vote represent two different totals in the polls. In the RCP 2024 national multi-candidate poll, Harris leads in all but one of the cited polls. The polls range from +1 for Trump in the latest NBC News poll to +4 for Harris in the Economist/YouGov poll.
Beyond the presidential battle, the fight for the Senate and House remains turbulent with only days before millions of Americans cast their ballot. Current polling from RCP shows Democrats expected to take control of the House by a slim margin. Republicans remain close, however, based on the group’s latest analysis.
“The balance of power in the House of Representatives, currently under Republican control, will likely be decided by 42 of the most competitive races, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report. Eight of those races are in deep blue states,” RCP reported.
“Republicans could maintain control of the lower chamber by winning 11 of the 26 seats rated as ‘toss-ups’ by Cook if they also manage to secure those 15 seats rated as Likely or Lean Republican. Republicans have 14 incumbents in those toss-up seats, and there are three open toss-up seats,” the report added.
The Senate battle is also close, though most expect the GOP to take advantage due to Republican Tim Sheehy leading in Montana and West Virginia’s Jim Justice leading in the state where he has been a popular governor.
