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With roughly two weeks to go until Americans cast their votes for president, the winning odds have grown more favorably for President Donald Trump compared to any point in history.
The 45th president has a 93.2 percent chance of defeating Kamala Harris in the Electoral College, according to the Silver Bulletin and Real Clear Politics, while Vice President Kamala Harris had just over a six percent chance at winning.
The outlets further predicted that Harris, albeit narrowly, would win the national popular vote by nearly one point (49.2 to 48.3 percent), well within the margin for error.
Nate Silver, for whom the data originated, explained in his election forecast that “There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading,” which he called “a difficult circumstance for Harris.”
FiveThirtyEight’s 2024 election prediction also forecasted President Trump’s victory over Harris, projecting the president with a 52 percent chance of winning, and that he would receive at least 272 Electoral College votes as of Sunday.
Even more extraordinary, Trump was also poised to defeat Harris by all betting measures, according to the Real Clear Politics 2024 betting odds average, by nearly 17 points (57.9 to 41 percent).
The latest betting odds predicting a Trump victory are a complete turn around from only four years ago, where Joe Biden previously led by 22.8 points on Oct. 20 (61.6 to 38.8 percent).
Real Clear Politics’ “No Toss-Up” map also showed Trump would sweep all seven major swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, giving him 312 total Electoral College votes against 226 for the vice president.
In the past two election cycles, Trump has been the underdog, especially in polling. Thus, if polls were to again underestimate his support, the president may win in a landslide unlike any other in the 21st century.