Independent voters shift drastically in favor of Republicans: poll

Yellow sign with VOTE HERE is standing by a line of people wating to get to the polls in Arizona

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With election day closing in, the polls have swung widely in favor of Republicans, including among independent voters.

According to a new CBS/YouGov poll, independent voters preferred generic congressional Republican candidates over Democrat candidates by a wide margin of 49 percent to 33 percent.

The results of this poll are even more staggering when compared to a similar CBS/YouGov poll conducted just two weeks before, which found that independent voters favored Democrat candidates to Republican candidates by a two-point margin, 40 percent to 38 percent— representing an 18 percent swing in favor of Republicans.

Republican gains in the latest polls coincide with Republican messaging on inflation and the economy, which remain the top concerns among voters, according to most major issue polls.

A recent Rasmussen poll indicated that Republicans had gained a sizeable lead in the generic congressional ballot. The survey found that among all voters, Republicans hold a seven-point advantage (49 percent to 42 percent) over Democrats.

This is more good news for Republicans because, at this point in the 2018 midterms, Democrats had a three-point lead over Republicans in the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot and then retook the House. Republicans, this time, hold an even more significant lead in the same poll, which bodes well for their chances to retake the House and oust Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

One other factor benefiting Republicans is the unpopularity of Joe Biden. Historically, when the sitting occupant of the White House’s approval rating sits below 50 percent, his party tends to lose more congressional seats than those who have approval ratings above 50 percent.

According to a recent Gallup poll, Joe Biden’s job approval rating sits at just 40 percent. In the history of Gallup’s polling, which dates to the 1940s, the average House seat loss for a president’s party when the president’s job approval is under 50 percent was 37 House seats.

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