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Amid a chaotic redistricting battle between Republicans and Democrats over control of the U.S. House, new developments suggest a historic victory for one party.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan analysis and research firm, gives Republicans a probable chance of retaining their narrow majority in the U.S. House.
As a consequence of redistricting, Inside Elections forecasts the GOP will win at least 217 seats to Democrats’ 207, while 11 House seats are considered tossups.
A total of 218 seats is required to win control of the House. If Inside Elections’ prediction materializes, Republicans would only have to win one of the 11 swing races for control.
Republicans maintaining control would be especially compelling because, historically speaking, the president’s party has usually lost House seats in every midterm election since the Civil War.
The new figure comes after the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated Democrats’ redistricting map, which likely would have elected 10 Democrats and only one Republican.
Conversely, Republicans have recently made significant redistricting gains in several key states, including Florida, where GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a new map that flips two to four previously Democratic House seats.
Tennessee Republicans also approved a map carving out their state’s only Democratic House seat in Memphis, adding one more GOP seat to the lower chamber.
Even with these gains in Florida and Tennessee, Republican state officials throughout the South are considering changes to their House maps following the Supreme Court’s decision abolishing race-based congressional districts.
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry already canceled the state’s primaries to give state legislators time to redraw a congressional map, eliminating one or both of the state’s two Democratic House seats.
In South Carolina, the state legislature has already convened to discuss eliminating its lone Democratic seat, with Alabama considering the same for its two Democratic-held congressional seats, Inside Elections reports.
