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Op-Ed by Matt Kane
Time, money, and resources are always precious to a campaign, but especially during October, the crucial final stretch of an election year. This explains why both parties spend the last month blitzing the states they believe will secure the presidency. President Trump’s recent rally in New York, soon to be followed by another at Madison Square Garden and an upcoming one in California, serves as evidence that he believes he has a real opportunity to make a rare Republican play for both states—and he does.
Since issues are what truly matter, we should focus on the top concerns for voters and who has been most affected by them when evaluating this race. We must also look beyond what comes from the always unreliable mainstream media and polling communities, which consistently frame every general election as a tossup race.
The top national issues are immigration, the economy (inflation), and energy. Ironically—yet unsurprisingly—the impact of these problems is most severe in states like New York and California. This is because they are governed by Democrats who follow the same ideology as the federal administration responsible for these issues. While Americans in “red” states may be more ideologically opposed to the leftist agenda, those in “blue” states feel its effects more intensely. Competent Republican-led state governments have managed to alleviate some of the pain by serving as a line of defense against extreme left federal policies. In contrast, those in blue states are hit from two directions—by both federal and state governments. Therefore, significant voter realignment is more likely to occur among voters experiencing a first-hand political “awakening” rather than those already aware of the dangers of radical leftism, making previously “deep blue” states prime candidates for this shift.
Starting with immigration, no two states have borne the brunt of this issue like New York and California. In New York, for example, recent reports revealed that a staggering 75% of people arrested in Midtown Manhattan, and over 60% of people arrested in Queens, were illegal aliens. This is not only an obvious concern regarding the crimes being committed by those here illegally, but it also diverts law enforcement resources from addressing other crimes being committed by American citizens. Beyond crime, the strain is felt in schools as well. Students at a Brooklyn school were temporarily forced to return to homeschooling, the same homeschooling that caused significant setbacks in educational development during COVID, to make room for 2,000 illegal aliens.
As for California, in addition to facing similar crime crises in its major cities as seen in New York, the state’s legislature recently passed a truly unconscionable bill along party lines that would provide $150,000 taxpayer-funded home loans to illegal aliens—essentially incentivizing further illegal immigration. While Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed the bill (likely for his own future political ambitions), its passage in the state senate serves as clear evidence to Californians that Democrats in the state government do not prioritize their needs.
The passage of that bill is an even greater slap in the face, given it comes at a time of soaring living costs for all Americans, but especially for Californians. For example, the cost of living in California is 38% higher than the national average, including a staggering 97% higher cost for housing, 24% more for utilities, and 30% more for transportation. Similarly, New Yorkers face a cost of living 26% above the national average, with housing costs 75% higher, goods and services around 10% higher, and transportation costs 7% higher.
Regarding energy, New York and California have been disproportionately affected by the astronomical costs of energy. The national average price per gallon of gas has remained above three dollars for nearly 1,400 days. While three dollars per gallon is already too high, there were many points during the Harris-Biden era when New Yorkers and Californians would have preferred that price compared to what they were paying in their states. In California, the average cost of gasoline peaked at $6.29 per gallon in June 2022, and today it remains at a staggering $4.57. In New York, gas prices spiked to $4.85 per gallon in June 2022 and are still unreasonably high at $3.42.
There is a long-held belief that voters in deep blue states will never not vote Democrat, but that assumption is deeply flawed, especially now. Many Democrat voters didn’t intentionally vote for the outcomes they are now experiencing. They didn’t vote for soaring gas prices, unchecked illegal immigration, or an unaffordable cost of living. They voted for the carefully crafted lies told by the party they’ve long supported. After four years of experiencing these harsh realities firsthand, it would be naïve to think that such a destructive period hasn’t changed minds. In fact, previous eras in history show that significant crises have prompted millions to reconsider their traditional voting patterns, and many of those crises are resurfacing today.
The last time states like New York and California voted Republican was in the 1980s, where economic issues were the primary driver. Jimmy Carter inherited an inflation rate of 5.2%, which nearly tripled under his watch, peaking at 14.8%. In comparison, Harris-Biden inherited an inflation rate of 1.9% and allowed it to soar nearly fivefold, reaching a high of 9.1%. While Carter poorly managed a crisis he inherited, Harris-Biden created their own crisis and then managed it even worse than Carter did his. Another parallel to the 1980 election, where Carter suffered one of the worst losses ever for an incumbent president, is the media coverage. Just days before Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory, taking 489 electoral votes to Carter’s meager 49, many pollsters showed Carter leading nationally before losing by just under ten points. This proves that mainstream media coverage, which is downstream from the polling it relies on, is often not just wrong within the margin of error, but entirely unreliable when predicting voter behavior.
What’s also working in Trump’s favor are both his and Kamala’s personal ties to these states. As a native New Yorker, Trump has a unique base of support for a Republican in the state. He spent a considerable amount of time in the Empire State due to the legal battles waged against him this past spring, and he parlayed this period of confinement into a kind of homecoming, making impromptu campaign stops throughout his trial. This comes shortly after the 2022 elections, when GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin lost by just six points and Chuck Schumer failed to surpass 60% of the vote for the first time since the 1990s—clear evidence that a notable shift to the right is already underway in New York.
As for California, home-field “advantage” can be a double-edged sword. Kamala Harris is a native Californian, but instead of receiving hometown support, many Californians associate her with the policies they have increasingly suffered from and grown dissatisfied with, which could lead to a referendum on her that benefits Trump. Similar to New York’s shift to the right, Californians expressed their frustration with extreme leftism by attempting to recall Governor Gavin Newsom just a few years ago during the early part of the Harris-Biden administration, signaling a desire to move away from the current era of leftist policies here as well.
Whether you believe Trump can win these states ultimately depends on your perception of your fellow Americans. Do you think every Democrat voter is so fiercely committed to the party that they’d vote for it even at the expense of their own and their loved ones’ best interests? If you’re uncertain, consider this: approximately 13% of President Trump’s voters—around 10 million—had previously voted for Barack Obama. No one would argue how diametrically opposed these two presidents are, as their longstanding public feud predates Trump’s formal entrance into politics. The fact that so many voters have been willing to support both of these men, who share virtually no common ground on major issues, debunks the theory that “Democrat voters never change their ways.” Further, this striking shift happened well before this year’s election, where Trump’s rising popularity will result in him significantly surpassing his previous record-high vote totals, potentially reaching the 90-100 million range. Those votes will have to come from somewhere, and it’s likely they will come from areas that weren’t previously as pro-Trump as they are now, but have enough population density to make a significant impact.
This is not to predict or guarantee a Trump win in these states. As we know, intentional, and often government-supported, election integrity weakening procedures—such as California’s recent decision to make voter ID ILLEGAL—can prevent results from fully reflecting the true will of the people. But can Trump win these states? Yes. At the very least, his presence could boost turnout, aiding crucial congressional races that are pivotal to advancing his agenda once in office, while also forcing Kamala’s campaign to spend resources defending these states. At best, if Trump wins, or is competitive in these traditionally deep-blue states, it would signal a landslide victory for him across the rest of the country.