Photo: Alamy
With less than five months until the 2024 presidential election, President Trump’s odds of edging out a victory have significantly increased.
A Tuesday forecast released by Decision Desk HQ showed the 45th president with a 59 percent chance of a second term in the White House, noting that the percent was “tied for his best odds yet.”
During its live coverage of Tuesday’s primary election results in Virginia, Oklahoma, and Georgia’s primary runoff elections, Decision Desk HQ discussed the upcoming debate between Biden and Trump and whether it would affect Trump’s ever-growing upward trajectory.
One commentator from the National Journal suggested that voters were not yet locked into a candidate. He argued that there was “only a handful” of “watershed moments left between now and November” that could sway voters one way or the other, including the June 27 presidential debate hosted by CNN in Atlanta, the upcoming party conventions, and the second scheduled debate between the two candidates in September.
A commentator from Axios said that the candidates’ campaigns are “keenly focused on preparing for that debate,” with Trump already meeting with advisers and Biden planning a preparatory weekend at Camp David. She emphasized that “both teams are hoping that voters will see a contrast” during the debate.
A Wall Street Journal commentator suggested that there may not be “a big moment” during the debate that would change voters’ minds, but that it may simply serve as a “let’s remind people who these people are, let’s remind people of who these two guys are.”
He pointed out that Trump’s voters are “with him” but that “it’s different for Biden” because he needs to convince Trump-leaning and undecided voters to support him.
In recent weeks, the Biden campaign has attempted to regain lost support from black and Hispanic voters. On Monday, his team announced an ad campaign targeting minority voters that focuses on Trump’s recent conviction by a New York jury.
However, according to a recent aggregate of media network polls, President Trump’s support from black voters has tripled since 2020.