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With less than one month until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, new polling figures illustrate where the two major presidential frontrunners stand in the swing-state of Wisconsin.
According to the latest poll from Marquette Law School Poll of 784 Likely Voters, President Donald Trump narrowly leads incumbent Joe Biden in a five-way race.
Trump received 44 percent to Biden’s 42 percent, while Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered just seven percent. Meanwhile, Independent Cornel West received four percent, while the Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein both tied with two percent in the state.
In a head-to-head matchup in the survey of likely voters, however, Biden narrowly defeated Trump by two points, earning 51 percent to the 49 percent.
Of the more liberal-leaning third-party candidates, Stein is thus far the only one between herself, Kennedy, and West to be officially included on the state’s ballot, her campaign reported. This could in turn help to break up Biden’s support in the state, should dissatisfied liberal voters turn to another option over the incumbent.
With the 2024 GOP convention set to take place in Wisconsin, the event could help move the state more into the Trump column if it is able to muster up additional support.
Wisconsin will certainly be close this election cycle, as the state voted for President Trump by less than one percentage point in 2016, and Biden by the same margin just four years later.
Furthermore, early polling in Wisconsin tends to greatly overestimate the Democrats, as evidenced by its results from the past two presidential elections.
During this same point in June 2016, the Real Clear Politics polling average showed Democrat Hillary Clinton with an 8.6-point lead over Donald Trump. Ultimately, he narrowly won the state just five months later.
In 2020, Biden was leading the 45th president by eight points in June, but he only won the state by less than one percent on Election Day.
Currently, both Trump and Biden are tied in the Real Clear Politics average, each receiving 46.9 percent. If the trends from the last two cycles hold true, the 45th president will almost certainly carry the state.
The 2024 GOP convention is scheduled to begin on Monday, July 15, and last through Thursday, July 18.