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A new Siena Research Institute poll shows New York Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik narrowing the gap with New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of a potential 2026 gubernatorial race, with growing discontent among voters over Hochul’s leadership.
In a head-to-head matchup, Hochul leads Stefanik 45 percent to 31 percent, a 14-point margin that marks a noticeable drop from the 23-point lead recorded in June. The poll also found that 53 percent of New Yorkers would prefer someone other than Hochul in the next election.
“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
The poll found sharp partisan divides, with more than two-thirds of Democrats supporting Hochul, and three-quarters of Republicans favoring Stefanik. Independents, who backed Hochul in June, now lean slightly toward Stefanik.
Regional shifts were also evident, with suburban downstate voters now narrowly favoring Stefanik, and upstate voters nearly evenly split after previously supporting Hochul by 12 points.
Alex DeGrasse, executive director of Elise for Congress, said the poll spells trouble for the incumbent.
“The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50% on the ballot, and only 35% of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul,” he told The Post Millennial.
Though Stefanik has not officially entered the race, she has signaled interest and is widely seen as the GOP frontrunner. Fellow Republican Rep. Mike Lawler announced last month he would not run for governor, clearing a potential rival from the field. Stefanik is expected to announce her decision by November.
Stefanik’s campaign account posted in response to the poll, “It’s simple: the Worst Governor in America’s poll numbers are dropping like a rock. Kathy Hochul’s out-of-control spending and bloated budgets resulted in a $34 BILLION budget gap.”