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President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in one of the most important battleground states for the 2024 presidential election, increasing his prospects of victory.
The latest Trafalgar Group poll reported that Trump leads Harris by more than two points in Pennsylvania, earning 47.5 percent to the vice president’s 45.3 percent, according to the survey of 1,090 likely voters.
Roughly four percent remained “Undecided,” the poll found, while nearly three percent said they would vote for someone else in the election.
With the addition of this data, Trump has taken the lead in the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the state of Pennsylvania, making this the first time he has led in the state’s polling averages in the election cycle.
Currently, the president holds a narrow 0.2-point advantage, receiving an average of 48.1 percent to 47.9 for his rival. By contrast, this is still Trump’s largest lead in the state’s polling average, as Pennsylvania polling has grossly underestimated him by Sept. 29 during the past two election cycles.
In 2020, Joe Biden led his opponent by 5.7 points (49.6 to 43.9 percent), though his lead was ultimately cut down by four points on Election Day. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, led Trump by 2.4 points in 2016 (45.4 to 43 percent), which later proved inaccurate as Trump won a victory in the state.
Republicans, although behind, also fared better than before in the state’s race for U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey led his Republican opponent, former U.S. Treasury Under Secretary Dave McCormick, by roughly only one point in the state (47 to 46 percent).
Casey still leads in the Real Clear Politics average by four percent, though his lead has been cut in half since January. If McCormick flips the Pennsylvania Senate seat, and Republicans hold onto their current races up for grabs this cycle, the GOP would regain control of the upper chamber for the first time in four years.