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Following the historic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Donald Trump has essentially become the de facto Republican presidential nominee for 2024.
His insurmountable leads in every state make a path to victory for his primary opponent, the former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley, virtually impossible—most recently in Texas.
Among Lone Star State GOP primary voters, President Trump would defeat Nikki Haley by 58 points in Texas (69 percent to 11 percent), according to the latest survey from Emerson College.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump in January, also received seven percent.
Furthermore, Texas is poised to be won by various Republicans in 2024, despite its leftward political shift in recent years.
Trump would win the state by eight points in a rematch with Joe Biden, a more than two-point increase from his six-point victory in 2020.
In a head-to-head matchup, 49 percent of respondents claimed they would back Trump in 2024, and 41 percent pledged to support an incumbent Biden.
With third-party candidates factored into the survey, Trump’s numbers fell slightly by three points (46 percent), although his margin of victory increased to a 10-point win in Texas.
Alternatively, Biden’s support dropped by five points (36 percent), while Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received five percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West both garnered one percent.
Real Clear Politics polling averages shows Trump leading by an average of eight points against Biden. However, it is possible that the 45th president will increase his margin over the unpopular incumbent.
Texas polling averages underestimated Trump by more than four points in 2020. If this same phenomenon reoccurred, the 45th president could win the Lone Star State by 12 points in 2024, which would be his largest margin ever in the state.
Biden’s increasing unpopularity in the state has also likely factored into Trump’s high polling among Texans. According to a survey from Race to the WH, Biden has an approval rating of 36 percent in the Lone Star State.
Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz currently has a narrow lead over his potential Democrat opponents in the state’s U.S. Senate race, according to the poll from Emerson College.
Cruz, who is running for reelection for a third term, has a two-point lead against Democrat Rep. Colin Allred (42 percent to 40 percent) and a one-point lead against state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (41 percent to 40 percent).
While Cruz’s lead is relatively narrow, it is possible the Biden administration’s negligent response to the ongoing border crisis, plaguing states like Texas, could hurt the Democrats as they attempt to unseat the incumbent senator.
Recently, Gov. Abbott, R-Texas, declared the state’s right to defend itself, arguing that the Biden administration refuses to carry out its constitutional duty of defending the border.
Twenty-five states have so far declared solidarity with Abbott and his move to take action to stop the unfettered flow of illegal immigration.
