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With the presidential election one month away, voters from the battleground state of Michigan are swinging right into President Donald Trump’s column compared to only four years ago.
The latest MIRS/MI News Source poll found that the president led his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, by one percent in the key state, receiving 49 percent to 48 percent in a two-way race.
In a race with eight different third-party candidates, Trump and Harris each garnered 47 percent in the state.
Trump improved his support among various demographics who supported Joe Biden in 2020. In particular, female, African American and younger voters swayed back to the Trump side, likely contributing to his surge in support from state residents.
Harris narrowly led Trump with female voters (51 to 47 percent) by a small margin compared to past elections for Democrats. Harris was unable to overcome President Joe Biden’s 2020 exit poll margins with women, as he previously won the demographic by 14 points (57 to 43 percent) in Michigan.
Harris also led with the 18-29-year-old demographic but by only eight points—a sharp drop from Biden’s 24-point lead among this group four years ago.
The vice president’s support from African Americans dropped too, as Trump received 20 percent to 77 percent for the vice president, the poll found. Surprisingly, her gap from the last election cycle is disproportional to Biden, who had taken 92 percent support from the group four years ago, compared to only seven percent for President Trump.
With this data, it can also be compared to Trump’s 2.8-point defeat (50.6 to 47.8 percent) in Michigan just four years ago, meaning that if Harris’ support in her own typically solid demographics continues to fall, or stays at its current form, she will likely lose the state by a wide margin.
Polling also shows the state moving away from the Harris column. On Oct. 3 of 2020, Biden had been ahead in polls with the state by an average of 5.7 percent, though this lead was cut down by two points. Similarly, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had led by an average of 5.3 points in 2016, though she ultimately lost the state very narrowly to President Trump by just under one full point, according to the polling averages from Real Clear Politics.
Currently, Harris leads by an average of 0.7 percent in the state. If the polling margins switched as in 2020 and in 2016, Trump will be the likely victor in Michigan, carrying its 16 electoral votes.