Wisconsin is bracing for competitive Senate and gubernatorial races on Nov. 8. Fortunately, the state’s latest polls indicate victories to come for Trump-endorsed candidates, Sen. Ron Johnson and Tim Michels.
A Fox News poll conducted Oct. 26-30 of 1,000 Wisconsin voters shows Johnson leading Democrat challenger Mandela Barnes by three percentage points, 48-45 percent. That is a significant decline for Barnes, who led Johnson by four points in August.
Moreover, the survey shows Johnson maintains his lead over Barnes with 48-46 percent in the subgroup that already voted or is sure to vote.
The poll notes that Republicans’ stronghold in Wisconsin is likely giving Johnson the advantage in the race, as more voters identify with the GOP. However, independents appear to favor Barnes, giving the Democrat a seven-point advantage over Johnson.
“As expected, Wisconsin is extremely competitive,” pollster Daron Shaw said. “Johnson’s edge is driven by two facts. First, issues where the public favors the GOP are prevalent. Second, he’s managed to brand Barnes as too liberal. But it’s still a tight race.”
In the same poll, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels holds a slim one-point advantage over Democrat Gov. Tony Evers, 47-46 percent. However, Michels’ lead has increased over the past few months as Evers led Michels in August, but that lead slowly declined in September and again in October. The steady decline has allowed Michels to hold a competitive edge over Evers.
The same one-point advantage is seen in the subgroup of voters who already voted or are certain to vote, with Michels leading Evers 48-47 percent.
Both Republican candidates are also up in a Wick Insights poll of 1,089 voters conducted Oct. 26-30.
According to the data, Johnson has a four-point advantage, leading Barnes 50-46 percent. Johnson still leads Barnes when voters were asked who they would vote for in the election was held today, with Johnson earning 53 percent support and Barnes trailing behind at 47 percent.
Similarly, Michels leads Evers by a slim margin of 47.5 percent to 47.2 percent. However, roughly 58 percent of voters said they would vote for Michels if the election were held today, compared to Evers’ 42 percent.
Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight predicts Johnson has an 80 percent chance of cruising to victory. While it’s a dead heat for the governor’s seat, the forecaster gives Michels a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Evers’ 48 percent.