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As House members prepare for another election showdown in 2026, early polling indicates that Democrats are entering the cycle at a significant disadvantage compared to their performance in previous midterms.
Historically, the party opposite the White House wins control of the House. In fact, the last time that the president’s party did not lose control of the chamber and gained seats was 2002, and 1978 previously.
If history follows precedent, President Trump’s Republican Party would lose control of the U.S. House, as was true during the midterms of his first term in 2018.
However, the odds of this trend continuing in 2026 are seemingly waning, according to recent data.
As of Tuesday, polling averages show Democrats ahead by just three points (44.2 to 42.3 percent) in the generic popular vote—down significantly compared to their data for the 2018 midterms.
Democrats were ahead by nine points (46.4 to 37.4 9) at this time in early Sept. 2017. The following year, they carried the popular vote by nearly nine points, taking control of the chamber after netting 41 seats.
Nonetheless, even if Democrats carried the popular vote, that does not translate to a victory in gaining control. Even so, they are facing an uphill battle in redistricting, with Republicans potentially gaining a minimum of five new seats.
Republicans are currently expected to retain at least 212, according to the 2026 Census. Adding five seats would provide the party a minimum of 217 seats, meaning Republicans only need to win one of the tossup seats to get to 218—the magic number required for control of the U.S. House.
Although the election is still over one year out, these figures portray a larger problem for the Democratic Party: a clear lack of enthusiasm going into the cycle.
Consequently, a recent CNBC survey found that the Democratic Party’s approval rating was a record low 32 percent—their lowest favorability ratings going back to at least 1996.
With no clear message or leader, the party may experience a record defeat in 2026 and ultimately lose the White House in 2028.