Election forecast predicts White House winner days after Trump conviction

by Alex Caldwell

Photo: Alamy

Despite President Trump’s recent conviction on 34 charges related to his reported falsification of business records, his presidential campaign appears to have only grown stronger.

Intriguingly, Decision Desk HQ’s latest elections forecast predicted a win for the 45th president this November, including with other Republicans across down-ballot races.

President Trump was predicted to have a 56 percent chance of defeating Joe Biden, the forecast found Sunday.

The 45th president was projected to not only carry the states he won in 2020 (which would immediately provide him with 235 electoral votes) but also flip swing states Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden was predicted to win Michigan and Nevada. The incumbent totaled 247 electoral votes compared to President Trump’s 291.

Interestingly, while polls have shown a competitive race between the two candidates in Michigan, Nevada has painted a different story. In fact, the incumbent has not led in a single poll from the state since October, as reported by Real Clear Politics polling averages, making its identity as a Biden-leaning state something mysterious.

According to the report, Republicans were also predicted to win the White House and control the U.S. Senate, with a projected 77 percent chance of victory.

Republican candidates were forecasted to unseat incumbent Democrat senators from the states of Montana and West Virginia, though they would fall short in flipping Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Although the majority of Democratic incumbents would win reelection across more swing states, Senate Republicans must flip only two seats to regain control of the upper chamber.

Should these results come to fruition, Republicans would hold 51 seats against 49 controlled by Democrats.

The U.S. House was also forecast to stay in GOP hands—albeit narrowly—with a 62 percent chance Republicans maintain their majority in the lower chamber.

According to Decision Desk’s House map, 17 competitive seats will decide the makeup of Congress, and Republicans currently hold the advantage.

According to the report, Republicans were anticipated to flip three seats, including that of Reps. Matt Cartwright, D-Pa., Don Davis, D-N.C., and Marie Glusenkamp Perez, D-Wash., and hold eight of their other competitive seats.

On the contrary, Democrats were predicted also to flip three seats, all of which were swing-seats in New York. Incumbent Republican Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, and Brandon Williams, who all represent fairly moderate districts, were projected to fall short in their races.

Michigan’s race for the 8th congressional district was the only election found to be too close to estimate. The current Democratic-held seat will be open this cycle as Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin retires to run for the U.S. Senate.

Nevertheless, Republicans are posed to win at least 222 House seats this fall, a small four-seat majority for their party in the lower chamber, despite their flipping the same number of incumbent seats as Democrats.

It will certainly be competitive and difficult for Republicans to win a trifecta across the presidency and legislature. However, if the party plays its cards correctly and maintains its leads, President Trump will be best positioned to implement his America First agenda should he become the 47th President of the United States.

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