Four more years? New poll shows who will win battleground states, presidency

2WM3Y1T Myrtle Beach, United States. 23rd Feb, 2024. Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump interacts with the crowd after a "Get Out and Vote" campaign rally at the Winthrop Coliseum in Rock Hill, South Carolina on Friday, February 23, 2024. South Carolina holds its Republican presidential primary on February 24. Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI Credit: UPI/Alamy Live News

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As President Donald Trump and Joe Biden prepare to face off in a race unlike any since 1892, pre-election polling shows which candidate is poised to win a second term in the White House.

According to the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, which surveyed Registered Voters across seven swing-states, President Trump is the heavy favorite to take back the presidency in November.

The 45th president’s most favorable numbers came from North Carolina, where he surpassed Joe Biden by 10 points (51 to 41 percent) in the Tar Heel State.

In a five-way race, President Trump’s margins stayed the same, receiving 48 percent of the vote to Biden’s 38. Moreover, third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West carried six percent between them.

President Trump carried North Carolina by just over one percentage point in 2020. Should polling stay at its current level, the 45th president would expand his previous win by an impressive near nine points.

The 45th president’s narrowest polling win came out of the Keystone State, which is expected to have one of the closest races of the election cycle.

President Trump led his rival by only one point (47 to 46 percent) in Pennsylvania, according to the poll, a state that both presumptive presidential nominees have visited in recent weeks.

Biden also fell behind in a five-way race (Trump 43, Biden 42 percent) in his home state, while another eight percent said they would support Kennedy, and one percent for both West and Stein.

Impressively, President Trump was also poised to win almost all the other swing-states he carried during his victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, such as Georgia (Trump 49, Biden 43 percent), Arizona (Trump 49, Biden 42), and Wisconsin (48 Trump, Biden 44 percent).

Joe Biden was projected the winner of these three states in 2020, winning each by under a single point. However, voters in these states do not appear to be buying another four more years of the incumbent, as President Trump has seemingly swung them into his category by a wide margin in contrast to the last election.

Additionally, if these three states flipped Republican, President Trump would assumably defeat Biden should he carry the remaining states stayed in their respective columns from 2020.

The 45th president was also favored to win Nevada—the only state of the seven polled that he did not win in either of his two presidential elections—by a decisive eight points (51 to 43 percent) against Joe Biden.

With Nevada slowly moving to the right for recent elections, even electing GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo in 2022, Republicans have worked tirelessly to finally put this state into President Trump’s column—and 2024 may be his year to do so.

Meanwhile, the survey found that the only swing-state Biden would take was Michigan, defeating his predecessor by two points (47 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup.

Biden was also the favorite in a five-way race, earning 43 percent to President Trump’s 40 percent, whilst coinciding with Kennedy’s seven percent, and the one percent support for West and Stein.

The Michigan poll has thus far shown itself to be an outlier, however. According to Real Clear Politics, Biden has not led a single poll in the state since October 2023, consistently trailing President Trump by roughly three points in the state.

A large number of Michigan Democrats have also been discouraged by the incumbent’s reelection campaign, with almost 20 percent of their primary voters casting their vote for other potential nominees for their party.

Nonetheless, if President Trump carried the other six states surveyed in the poll, along with all the other states he took in 2020, he would receive 297 Electoral College votes, well above the minimum 270 needed to win the presidency.

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