Poll: Trump could win popular vote in biggest landslide since Ronald Reagan

by Alex Caldwell

Photo: Alamy

President Donald Trump is poised to win the popular vote for this year’s election by a record-breaking margin unseen for nearly two decades, new polling suggests.

According to the latest polling numbers from CNN (conducted by SSRS), President Trump leads the incumbent Democrat by a margin nearly identical to Joe Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama, who swept the popular vote by over seven points against John McCain in 2008.

49 percent of 1,212 respondents reported that they would support a second term for President Trump, compared to 43 percent who supported Biden, in a rematch between the two rivals.

More impressively, no Republican presidential candidate has carried the popular vote in an election by over six points in a head-to-head race since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

In a five-way election, the 45th president expanded his lead to nine points against Biden (42 to 33 percent), although his overall vote share dropped by seven points, compared to 10 percent for the incumbent.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy received 16 percent support in the survey—the largest share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992—while Cornel West carried four percent, and Jill Stein with three percent.

Nevertheless, should President Trump win the election by nine points, it would be the largest popular vote margin for any Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, also coming less than a point away from mirroring the almost 10-point landslide win against Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy received 16 percent in the survey—the largest vote total for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992—while Cornel West carried four percent, and Jill Stein with three percent.

With President Trump’s dominating lead in the popular vote, it is likely that he will carry all of the key swing states should the numbers stay or increase at their current levels.

Throughout the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden is currently behind his predecessor in each territory among polling averages from Real Clear Politics as of Sunday—which means the incumbent would need to pull off a miracle to win if these numbers hold true.

Even so, a clear majority of Americans already described Biden’s presidency as a failure, according to CNN, a contrast to the plurality who called Trump’s first term a success.

More than three years into his first term, 61 percent of those polled said Biden’s presidency was a “failure,” while only 39 percent called it a “success.”

For President Trump, 55 percent of the respondents called his first term successful, and 45 percent stated the opposite, CNN’s survey found.

Interestingly, the exact opposite for President Trump was found in January 2021, when 55 percent said they believed his presidency to be a failure. However, it seems that amid his seemingly political trials and the foundering of Biden’s term—which appear to now favorably highlight Trump-era policies—the 45th president is currently experiencing support unlike that of his previous years in politics.

Thus, this survey shows that President Trump has furthered the gap between himself and Biden amid his current slew of trials—particularly the crusade from Democrat Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

According to the poll, voters care deeply about issues such as the economy (65 percent, in fact), and want a swift return to a Trump administration in January 2025.

Biden, who received dire marks for his economic (34 percent support) and inflationary (29 percent support) policies, will otherwise need to change course should he wish keep his address at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted from April 18-23 and included a random selection of 1,212 U.S. adults drawn from a probability-based panel.

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