Analysis by Summer Lane | Photo: Alamy
President Donald Trump has all but clinched the 2024 Republican primary nomination, based on GOP primary polling, but the Independent vote appears to be swinging heavily in his favor, too.
According to a new Sept/Oct. average roundup from Interactive Polls, Trump is leading Biden among Independent voters in at least five major mainstream polls, lending credence to the theory that the 45th president is far more popular with swing voters than most are willing to admit.
According to the poll roundup, Trump leads Biden among Independents by eight points (Fox News), two points (Center for Politics, UVA), six points (NPR/Marist), 15 points (CBS News), and 13 points (ABC/Washington Post). Interactive Polls found that the president led Biden by an average of seven points among all Independent polls they looked at.
Swing voters have often been said to decide the fate of elections, and if that holds true, Trump is poised to win the Independent vote in November 2024. Interestingly, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has recently announced his switch from Democrat to Independent in his 2024 bid for the presidency, most have promulgated that his campaign will steal more prospective Democrat votes from Biden than from Republicans and Independents who are all-in for Trump.
RSBN previously reported that RFK Jr.’s run could split the Democrat vote enough to further fracture Biden’s already-beleaguered chances of winning reelection, if data from Rasmussen pans out next year that suggests that 25 percent of Democrats would break for RFK Jr. in the general election.
Further, RFK Jr.’s recent announcement that he would support issuing reparations to Black Americans – a notable leftist policy aimed at addressing past slavery and segregation in America – has drawn plenty of criticism, the New York Post reported this week.
At the end of the day, as Biden fades into the distance and RFK Jr. will likely face intense voter scrutiny for his left-leaning policy pitches, Trump remains the leading candidate in the 2024 presidential race.