Polling trends in two key Democratic states have shown a streak of support for Republican gubernatorial candidates, which may bode well for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In both Virginia and New Jersey, Republican candidates are faring as well or better than President Trump did in past presidential elections.
Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has consistently held a strong double-digit lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia race. However, the race has tightened as election day approaches, with Spanberger currently leading by 7 points in the latest polling average.
The New Jersey race has seen similar progress, with the Republican candidate, former state representative Jack Ciattarelli, steadily cutting into the lead held by former Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. The most recent polling averages show Sherrill leading by approximately four points.
The trend could potentially signify a nationwide shift. Both Virginia and New Jersey are consistently viewed as states that strongly support the Democratic Party. According to Real Clear Politics, the gubernatorial candidates’ ability to maintain this level of support could indicate a threat to the block of states that are reliably Democratic, known as the “second blue wall.”
Such a shift would be particularly significant after the 2024 presidential election, when Democratic candidate Kamala Harris lost all seven swing states. The trend indicates that Republican candidates are competitive and are maintaining or surpassing the numbers President Trump achieved in recent elections. In his three presidential campaigns, President Trump lost Virginia by an average of 6.9 points and New Jersey by 11.6 points. The recent polling data shows Winsome Earle-Sears is matching President Trump’s numbers in Virginia, and Ciattarelli is outperforming Trump in New Jersey.
President Trump has issued strong endorsements for both of the Republican gubernatorial candidates. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, he reiterated his support.
“Virginia and New Jersey, VOTE REPUBLICAN IF YOU WANT MASSIVE ENERGY COST AND CRIME REDUCTIONS,” Trump said. “The Democrats will double and even triple your Energy Costs, and CRIME will be rampant. A vote for the Democrats is a DEATH WISH! VOTE REPUBLICAN!!”
