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With less than one year until the 2026 midterms, new polls reveal that Republicans may potentially flip a governor’s seat in one of the nation’s most blue states: California.
New polling revealed one of the Golden State’s Republican candidates leading the state’s primary race, while Democrats struggle to face off in a crowded field of their party’s primary candidates.
California’s gubernatorial elections are unique, using a so-called jungle primary system, where all candidates, regardless of political party, run on a single ballot.
The top two candidates then advance to the general election. While the top two candidates have historically been of the opposite political party, it is possible for two members of the same party to run against each other in a general election.
This has never occurred before on a gubernatorial level, but it has happened twice in California senate races, including in 2016 with the election of Kamala Harris, and 2018 with the reelection of Dianne Feinstein.
There are currently five high-profile Democrats seeking the governorship, including former Rep. Katie Porter, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonia Villaraigosa, former Comptroller Betty Yee and former Public Instruction Superintendent Tony Thurmond.
Likewise, Rep. Eric Swalwell and businessman Rick Caruso are also reportedly considering entering the race, Newsweek reported.
By comparison, only two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, are running.
If too many Democrats jumped into the state’s governor race, they could split the vote enough for two Republicans to advance to the general election, guaranteeing the GOP a seat in a state Democrats would typically be favored to win.
According to the latest EMC Research survey, Republican Steve Hilton leads with 20 percent, followed by Democrat Katie Porter with 16 percent. Republican Chad Bianco came in third place with 14 percent, well within the margin of error. Behind him trailed Democrat Eric Swalwell, who garnered 11 percent.
If Democrats are unable to consolidate their support, Republicans have a chance to flip the Golden State, which has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.
