State of the race: Trump’s chances of winning in the primary and general election look GOOD

2E3P35K HARLINGEN, TEXAS, USA - 12 January 2021 - President Donald J. Trump disembarks Marine One at Valley International Airport in Harlingen, Texas Tuesday,

Analysis by Summer Lane | Photo: Alamy

2024 is shaping up to be perhaps the most crucial turning point for our nation as the American people will choose the path forward next November in the general election, weighing the paths between tyranny and freedom at the ballot box.

With 2024 here, the hope of a brighter tomorrow still rises each morning, as the potential to vote Joe Biden out of the Oval Office is now a tangible possibility. As the Iowa caucuses are poised to kick off the primary season on Jan. 15, freedom-loving Americans can practically taste a prospective 2024 Republican victory, but there is still much work to be done.

Here’s a breakdown of the most important battleground primary races in the Republican fight for the nomination and how the general election will likely play out.

Nationwide GOP state of the race

Across the nation, President Trump is the favorite to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2024. Morning Consult’s newest data tracking the primary race found that the 45th president had a hefty 55-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla. Morning Consult reflects the data of other pollsters tracking the GOP primary (like Fox News and Clarity Campaign), showing Trump with a monstrous lead amounting to dozens of points.


President Trump is currently leading by historic margins in the polls ahead of the Hawkeye State’s anticipated caucuses. According to the latest CBS News poll, Trump holds a 36-point lead over runner-up Gov. DeSantis. While nothing is guaranteed, Trump will likely win handily in Iowa on Jan. 15, which would mark the first big victory for his campaign in 2024 as he sweeps toward the Republican nomination.

New Hampshire and Nevada

Things are looking good for President Trump in the Granite State and Silver State. In New Hampshire, whose primary will kick off just after the Iowa caucuses, Trump is hanging on tightly to 44 percent of the prospective Republican vote, giving him a 15-point lead over former U.N. Ambassador Haley, according to data from CBS News. In a state like New Hampshire, the lead is comfortable for the president, and it is unlikely that Haley will be able to drum up enough support to gain on Trump before the early state’s primary.

In Nevada, Trump has a massive lead, netting a 60-point lead over Gov. DeSantis. In their caucus (scheduled for Feb. 8), Nikki Haley has not filed to be on the ballot. Trump should win big here. It is also important to note that while Nevada has both a party primary and a caucus, delegates are only doled out based on the caucus results.

California, Texas, and Arizona

California may lean blue in the general election, but in the GOP primary race, the Golden State is indisputably Trump country. Per Morning Consult, Trump is leading among Republicans in the state by 61 points. The state awards its delegates to the candidate who accrues more than 50 percent of the vote in their primary. With a 61-point lead, Trump should dominate easily in California. The Golden State’s primary will take place on March 5.

In the Lone Star State, Morning Consult’s data reiterated Trump’s booming support, cementing a 57-point over DeSantis among Republican Texans who prefer the 45th president as the GOP’s nominee. Their primary will also be held on March 5.

Moreover, Trump is leading in Arizona by 53 points over DeSantis in State 48 (Morning Consult), with their primary scheduled for March 19.

South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida

Trump also appears to have it on lock in the Palmetto State ahead of the Feb. 24 primary if the latest voter data is any indication of how the primary election will go down. The president is leading by 26 points over Nikki Haley (The Trafalgar Group), which is no small feat because Haley formerly served as the Republican governor of South Carolina.

Unfortunately for Haley, she hasn’t been able to round up enough support in her home state to best Trump.

In Georgia, Trump is ahead with a 24-point gap between him and DeSantis (CNN), which is a wide lead, even for a mainstream pollster. Georgia’s primary is slated to kick off on March 12.

Importantly, the battleground state of Florida has seemingly delivered a harsh rejection of Gov. DeSantis’s presidential campaign. As the state’s governor, he has surprisingly failed to garner support among his own constituents.

According to data from Victory Insights, Trump has a devastating 41-point lead over DeSantis in the Sunshine State, robustly besting the governor on his home turf. The Florida GOP presidential primary will take place on March 19.

Overall general election polling

With multiple critical battleground states looking good, President Trump is in a powerful position to steamroll straight to the Republican primary nomination in 2024. Considering his rock-solid lead with Republicans, the overall focus inevitably must turn to the general election in November.

In a mainstream CNBC poll (Public Opinion Strategies), Trump captured his biggest lead in the poll’s history, scoring a six-point lead over Joe Biden in a general election. Via RealClearPolitics, Trump also won a 5.2-point lead on a ballot that included both Biden and Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In all, President Trump is in perhaps the best position he has ever been in not only to win the Republican nomination but also to dominate the Democrats at the polls in November.

Although no victory is guaranteed, it’s a good bet that Trump will give Biden a run for his money in a head-to-head battle, likely reclaiming the White House in what would be an unprecedented comeback story.

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