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Revenue from President Donald Trump’s tariffs has surged to $25 billion a month, up from $7 billion a year earlier, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The bipartisan budget watchdog reported the increase in a new analysis, estimating that tariffs could generate $1.3 trillion by the end of Trump’s term, before factoring in broader economic effects.
“Importantly, our estimates are very rough and intended to reflect the general magnitude of the policies rather than precise scores, given the complexity of the tariffs and their impacts,” the committee wrote.
“Estimates also exclude macroeconomic effects, which could reduce the net (real) deficit reduction from tariffs to the extent they lead to slower growth and higher inflation,” the report added.
Analysts cautioned that the additional tariff revenue will not fully offset costs from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended tax cuts, expanded border and military spending, and created new Medicaid eligibility rules. That law is projected to add to the national debt. Still, the committee said the tariff hikes are “likely to meaningfully reduce deficits if allowed to remain in effect.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in July, holding annual inflation at 2.7 percent, the same as in June. Trump argued on Truth Social that tariffs have not fueled inflation.
“It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” he wrote Tuesday.
Before Trump took office, U.S. tariffs generated about $3 billion a month. That figure rose to $7 billion during his first term after he imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, steel, and aluminum.
This year, tariffs have raised nearly $130 billion, more than double the amount collected at this point in 2023, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.