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With less than two weeks until the presidential election, President Donald Trump has taken the lead in the national popular vote average for the first time in history.
According to the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by an incredibly narrow 0.1 points (48.5 to 48.4 percent). Albeit a close race, this marks the first time the president has led nationally in October throughout his three presidential campaigns.
Popular vote data, particularly in October, has historically underestimated President Trump, whom during this same point four years ago trailed Joe Biden by 7.4 percentage points on average. Ultimately, Biden took the popular vote by roughly four points, overestimating his support by three points.
In 2016, Democrats were even more underestimated, as Hillary Clinton led by 5.6 points during this same point. However, she ultimately carried the popular vote by two points, and lost the election.
If Trump were to carry the popular vote, he would become the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since former President George W. Bush in 2004.
Moreover, polls seemingly have underestimated the president by an average of 3.2 points during October between the past two election cycles. If this trend continued into the election, Trump would win the popular vote by roughly three points, the largest margin for a Republican popular vote win since 1988.
However, the popular vote does not decide the winner of the presidency, but rather the country’s Electoral College system, which counts states’ given number of Electoral votes, allocated based on population, until one candidate reaches the 270 total needed to win the presidency.
Even so, the president’s paths to victory far outpace the results of the popular vote, as he is currently leading across the seven major swing-states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Real Clear Politics no-tossup averages, which would give President Trump a total of 312 Electoral College votes against 226 for Harris.
With a potential three-point win in the popular vote, it is also possible President Trump picks up more states said to possibly be in play, such as Virginia, New Hampshire, or Minnesota.
Trump is even campaigning in what were considered to be safe blue states, holding a packed campaign rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, an indication that the president believes the state is possibly in play.
If trends continue to favor Trump over the coming weeks, he will likely see a smashing electoral win and possible popular vote victory on Election Day.
