Trump takes the lead in October rustbelt state polling averages

by Alex Caldwell

Photo: Alamy

With less than one month before voters select the next leader of America, President Donald Trump is pulling ahead in the race during this point in the campaign unlike his previous campaigns.

The 45th president leads his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the rustbelt swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, while polling narrowly behind Harris in Wisconsin.

As of Thursday, Trump is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania (48.4 to 48.1 percent), which is the very first time the president has ever led Real Clear Politics’ polling averages from the state at this point in October.

While his lead in the state is small, it nevertheless marks a historic moment for the Trump campaign, whose numbers are historically underestimated in the state’s early polling.

President Joe Biden, who carried the state by roughly one percentage point in 2020, led Trump in the swing state by an average of 7.1 points only four years ago on Oct. 10, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lost the state in 2016, led by 9.4 total points in the Keystone State.

Likewise, Trump also led Harris in Michigan’s polling average, pulling ahead by slightly under one point (48.6 to 47.8 percent).

Biden, who carried Michigan by just less than three points, was ahead by an average of 6.7 percentage points on Oct. 10, 2020, and Clinton, who lost the state by under one point, led by 7.3 percentage points on Oct. 10, 2016.

Of the swing-states up for grabs, Pennsylvania and Michigan are two of the largest battlegrounds with the electoral tally, with the Keystone State having 19 Electoral College votes, while the Great Lake State holds another 15 total.

If President Trump won the exact same states he carried in 2020, and flipped Pennsylvania and Michigan, he would likely win the election with 269 Electoral College votes tied to 269 for Harris, as the U.S. House, whose state delegations have Republican control, would then select the president themselves.

At least 270 Electoral College votes minimum are required to win the election outright.

Trump could even sweep one of the other most competitive swing states within the rustbelt, despite his narrow deficit behind Harris in Wisconsin.

Harris currently leads Trump with a margin of less than half of one point (48.4 to 48 percent) in the state. Despite her lead, Wisconsin’s Real Clear Politics’ polling averages have historically underestimated the president’s numbers.

On Oct. 10, 2020, Biden led his rival by 5.5 points, but ultimately carried the state by less than one point. In 2016, Clinton led during this same point by 6.8 points, but ultimately lost the state one month later.

While the race between the three swing states are surely within the polling margin of error, it is clear that the momentum is behind Trump, and if history repeats itself, Harris will lose these states.

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