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President Donald Trump is poised to win big in the November 2024 general election if the most recent national polling holds steady for the next eight months.
Trump, who easily swept to victory in the 2024 GOP primary presidential election, will formally accept the Republican Party’s nomination in July, cementing his position as the man who will battle the Democrat machine this fall.
A recent 2024 general election poll from Selzer & Co./Grinnell College found that Trump was leading Joe Biden by eight points nationwide. This represents a five-point upswing for the 45th president since October 2023 and a three-point loss for Biden.
According to their data, Trump is also leading powerfully among Independents (43 percent against Biden’s 27 percent), foreshadowing a big win with the nation’s important swing voters.
Notably, their poll also dug into Independent voting patterns dating back to the last presidential election in 2020. In September 2020, Biden led with Independents by ten points, but in March 2024, Trump now leads Biden by 16 points.
Another recent poll from Emerson College/The Hill demonstrated Trump’s growing power in critical swing states. They found him leading Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. If that momentum continues over the next several months, Trump is likely on track to clinch a historic general election victory.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted with Noble Predictive Insights, gave Trump a one-point lead over Biden in the general election. Still, with third-party candidates in the mix, Trump’s lead increased to three points, with another seven percent “not sure.”
Polymarket’s famed election forecast has strongly predicted a Trump victory in November over Biden by wide margins. Their most recent forecast projected Trump to win at 51 percent against Biden’s 39 percent. In their data, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took just three percent of the odds.
