Trump will WIN Nevada, and it won’t be close

TYD36H President Donald Trump waves to attendees as he arrives for a rally at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada on Septemer 20, 2018. Photo by James Atoa/UPI

Analysis by Alex Caldwell | Photo: Alamy

The 2024 Republican presidential primaries have finally narrowed down to only two candidates—President Donald Trump and former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley—who will soon again face off to win another early battleground state: Nevada.

The Silver State, however, will conduct its election differently than in years past, holding parallel races only days apart.

Nevada will hold a state-run primary election for Republicans on Feb. 6 and a party-run caucus two days later on Feb. 8, a break from their solo past state caucus.

Interestingly, Haley’s and Trump’s names will not appear on both the primary and the caucus ballots.

Haley’s name only will appear on the state’s primary ballot, and Trump’s name will appear on the caucus ballot. However, solely the caucus results will determine the winner of Nevada’s 26 delegates—not its non-binding primary.

Historically, Nevada left the method of determining the winner of their primaries to the discretion of both political parties, and races were typically conducted through a caucus—a fairly common primary election system.

In 2024, 13 U.S. states or territories have caucus-like races on the books in lieu of state-run primaries.

Nonetheless, Nevada recently enacted a state-run primary election in place of their caucus system—much to the chagrin of the state’s Republican Party.

In 2021, Nevada’s Democrat-controlled state legislature passed a law to move the state from holding party-run caucuses to state-run primaries.

In complete disagreement with the measure, Nevada’s Republican Party opted to continue running their own caucuses to determine the winner of their party’s delegates for their party’s nomination.

By virtue of this rule, Trump is the only major candidate eligible to receive delegates in Nevada, and Haley’s presence on the non-binding primary ballot will have absolutely no bearing on who carries the state’s delegates.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had originally been named to the caucus ballot with Trump, but following the governor’s move to suspend his campaign on Sunday, the president is essentially running unopposed in the state.

Trump first won the state’s caucus in 2016, taking 46 percent of the vote by 22 points against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

In 2020, Nevada’s Republican Party canceled their presidential caucus, citing that it would only “waste money” because of the “inevitable conclusion” that the president would win all the delegates.

Haley will seemingly skip campaigning in the Silver State, a decision highly criticized by Trump, and will instead begin her crusade throughout her home state of South Carolina—the next primary state after Nevada.

Along with Nevada, the U.S. Virgin Islands will also hold a caucus on Thursday, Feb. 8, with four delegates up for grabs.

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