Photo: Alamy
Less than two months before the 2024 presidential election, the latest betting odds show President Donald Trump leading across nearly all swing states.
The 45th president leads in one of the largest betting markets, Polymarket, with a 51 percent chance of winning the race against Kamala Harris, whose odds of victory were calculated at 47 percent as of Sunday evening.
According to the election model, Trump was most likely to win Arizona (64 to 35 percent chance), Georgia (59 to 41 percent chance), North Carolina (64 to 36 percent chance), Nevada (54 to 46 percent chance) and Pennsylvania (55 to 45 percent chance).
Harris, meanwhile, was most likely to win Michigan (56 to 44 percent) and Wisconsin (56 to 44 percent).
To win the presidency, candidates need to receive 270 Electoral College votes, or 269 to tie. Should these numbers hold true, President Trump would receive 287 electoral votes, and Harris would take 251 votes.
This is the highest that Trump has polled in the betting odds against Harris following her entry into the election due to President Joe Biden’s departure from his reelection campaign.
Trump’s odds fare even greater than than four years ago, as Polymarket gave Biden a 53 percent chance of winning against a 46.9 percent chance for Trump.
Across polling averages, Harris is winning nationally against the 45th president. According to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, the vice president leads by 1.4 percent (48.1 to 46.7 percent). Notably, however, polling during this same time four years ago notoriously over-favored Biden, and underestimated Trump.
Real Clear Politics showed Biden with a 7.1 percent lead four years ago nationally. Ultimately, his support was drastically over-favored by nearly three points, leading to his 4.5 percent support following the election.
If the 2024 figures adjust as they did in 2020, Trump could win both the electoral and popular vote.
Additionally, the latest Nate Silver election prediction model showed the 45th president leading Harris in the betting odds by an even greater margin, giving Trump a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to 36 percent for the vice president.
In this model, President Trump was projected to win all of the key swing states. The 45th president was awarded Arizona (77 to 23 percent chance), Georgia (68 to 32 percent chance), Michigan (54 to 46 percent chance), North Carolina (75 to 25 percent chance), Nevada (61 to 39 percent chance), Pennsylvania (64 to 36 percent chance) and Wisconsin (53 to 47 percent chance), according to an X post from Interactive Polls.
If these numbers stay true and Trump carries these states, he would receive 312 electoral votes against his opponent’s 226 votes.
