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With less than one year until the 2026 U.S. House elections, Republicans and Democrats have been taking steps to ensure the other party does not gain control of the lower chamber.
To prevent this and attain a majority of at least 218 party members in the House, Republicans and Democrats have begun redrawing their states’ congressional districts, aiming to strengthen their hold in the lower chamber.
While neither party is likely to achieve a majority through redrawing maps alone, it will have a significant impact on various races across the country, ultimately helping them gain control.
The makeup of the U.S. House through redrawing maps is likely to be determined by the following states:
Texas (+5 Republican Seats)
The Lone Star State’s legislature and governor previously passed a measure redrawing the state’s congressional map, potentially flipping five Democrat-held U.S. House seats.
Under the new map, four Democrat-held seats would become vastly more Republican, while another would become a “tossup” race.
However, on Nov. 18, a federal court blocked Texas’ newly drawn map, claiming the state engaged in “unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.” Three days later, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito paused the court’s ruling, and the court is likely to debate the map’s legality in the coming weeks.
Missouri (+1 Republican Seat)
Earlier in September, the Missouri State Legislature passed a new congressional map that redrew its Kansas City seat into a far more Republican-leaning district, eliminating one of the state’s two seats held by Democrats, RSBN reported.
Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe later rubber-stamped the new map, and despite some Democratic opposition trying to toss out the ruling, the new congressional map will remain in 2026.
North Carolina (+1 Republican Seat)
North Carolina’s Republican legislature approved a map earlier in October, likely flipping the state’s first congressional district from Democrat-held to Republican-held. The state’s Democratic Gov. Josh Stein has no say in this process, Reuters reported.
Ohio (+1 Republican Seat)
The Buckeye State’s redistricting commission unanimously approved a new map in October, increasing the Republicans’ chances of flipping one, if not two, seats.
Ohio’s ninth congressional district, currently held by Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur, was drawn far more red, giving it a greater chance of flipping the seat. Meanwhile, the first district, held by Democrat Rep. Greg Landsman, was redrawn from being Democrat-leaning to a “tossup” seat.
South Carolina (+1 Potential Republican Seat)
Members of South Carolina’s Republican state legislature have been fighting to redraw the Palmetto State’s single remaining Democratic district, held by U.S. Rep. James Clyburn.
Clyburn has stated that he is not worried about the prospect of his district being redrawn, believing that the state’s Republican governor, although “partisan,” is “fair” and will not allow it.
Florida (+5 Potential Republican Seats)
While the Sunshine State has yet to take any formal steps to redraw its districts, state officials and Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis have signaled they are open to the idea.
Still, Florida’s GOP Chair Evan Power predicted that this could bring Republicans five additional seats, drawing out five Democratic districts.
Likewise, Florida Democrat state Rep. Anna Eskamani shared a map on social media, speculating that Republicans were considering drawing one Democrat district in Orlando, another in Tampa, and three in the Palm Beach area.
California (+5 Democrat Seats)
Following Texas’ pursuit to draw a new congressional map, California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom moved to draw new maps for the Golden State.
The decision to adopt Newsom’s map, dubbed Proposition 50, went to California voters, who overwhelmingly supported it, likely eliminating five current Republican seats.
The five seats will likely flip into Democratic hands following the 2026 midterms.
Utah (+1 Democrat Seat)
Earlier this month, a Utah judge tossed out the Republicans’ congressional map. The GOP, which controlled all four of Utah’s congressional districts, will likely lose the state’s first district, which consists of Salt Lake City.
Virginia (2-3 Potential Democrat Seats)
Virginia’s Democrat-controlled state legislature previously approved a constitutional amendment to transfer redistricting authority from an independent commission to them.
Following their recent victories in the state’s gubernatorial, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and legislative races, they will only be emboldened to take action in redistricting.
The legislature still has to pass the amendment in a second vote once newly elected members take office in January, per Reuters. If this succeeds, voters must then support the change before a new map is created. However, it is speculated that Democrats will pick up two or three Republican seats if this is successful.
Thus, the actions of voters and various state legislatures will significantly impact the makeup of the 2026 U.S. House races.
As it stands, Republicans could start with 211 seats, needing only seven of the 17 major tossup races to clench a majority of 218 if things go their way.
Democrats, meanwhile, could start with 207 seats if they can maintain their new maps in California and Utah and gain seats in Virginia. If successful, they would need 11 of the 17 major toss-up seats to gain a majority.