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The nation’s economy will not experience a recession in 2026, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
During an exclusive interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” the secretary told host Kristen Welker that he felt confident Americans would begin experiencing more economic relief in 2026 amid President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and trade deals.
“No,” he replied when asked whether the U.S. would experience a recession. “I am very confident about 2026. Because what we are going to see is the president’s done peace deals, tax deals, and trade deals, the One Big Beautiful Bill. And, you know, to go back to affordability, affordability has two components.”
“So it’s price of goods and real income. So under the One Big Beautiful Bill, especially for working Americans, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security,” he added during the Sunday interview.
“All the deductibility on loans for American cars, that’s all kicking in. Americans have not changed their withholding. So we are going to see substantial refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026. Americans will change their withholding. And they will get an increase in real income. The trade deals that we’ve done,” said Bessent.
When pressed on how long Americans would have to wait before the cost of living went down, he replied that it has already started.
“I talked about the three I’s that were killing Americans: immigration, interest rates and inflation. The president’s closed the border, and the mass immigration is gone,” he said.
“And that was putting—a lot of the immigration was putting upward pressure on housing, downward pressure on wages. Interest rates are down… So across the board, prices are starting to come down. We’re having Thanksgiving week. This will be the lowest cost for a Thanksgiving dinner in four years. Turkey prices are down 16 percent,” he explained.
Bessent further touted deals such as Boeing, which will expand its Dreamliner plant in Charleston, South Carolina, expected to create roughly 1,000 new jobs.
“I think we’re going to see these plant openings every week. I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong non-inflationary growth economy,” he said.
The secretary also predicted that health care costs would decrease soon, revealing that the Trump administration would have news about that this week.
Nonetheless, Bessent explained that the best way Americans could bring their inflation rate down was to move from a blue state to a red state, as Democrat-controlled states have “half a percent higher” inflation.
Likewise, he noted that the filibuster should be abolished, also publishing a piece in the Washington Post on Sunday saying it “no longer serves the country” and that Senate Republicans should end it as soon as possible.
“The Democrats haven’t been able to stop President Trump in the courts. They haven’t been able to stop him in the media, so they had to harm the American people—1.5 percent hit to GDP,” Bessent said, referencing the recent government shutdown.
“They don’t care,” he continued. “So I believe that Senate Democrats—if Senate Democrats close the government again, that Senate Republicans should immediately abrogate the filibuster.”