Six post-debate predictions show Trump winning the 2024 election

by Hailey Gomez
FRCBE3 Billionaire Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaking to supporters during a campaign rally at Fountain Park March 19, 2016 in Fountain Hills, Arizona.

Photo: Alamy

Following the debate between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, six presidential forecast polls show a win for the 45th president this November.

The presidential forecasts compiled by Interactive Polls on X (formerly known as Twitter) all show Trump holding a significant lead over Biden in the electoral college.

For example, within The Economist’s electoral prediction, Trump could hypothetically beat Biden by 308 to 230. Another prediction from Decision Desk HQ shows Trump beating Biden by 284 to 254.

Based on the six predictions pulled, Biden’s lowest electoral college pull could be 226, which was based on Polymarket data, with the highest reaching 268 based on FiveThirtyEight data.

Comparatively, predictions from the six pulled show Trump could reach an electoral vote as high as 312 based on Polymarket data, with his lowest hypothetical vote dropping to 270 based on FiveThirtyEight data.

During the debate between Trump and Biden last week, the president notably made multiple gaffs as he froze multiple times midway through making his arguments. Although reports during the debate claimed that Biden was suffering from a cold, Democratic pundits were quick to call out his poor performance afterward.

Some within the party have questioned whether Biden will be able to pull off another four years, as others, like the New York Times editorial board, have called for the president to step aside as the Democratic nominee.

A recent poll conducted by CBS/YouGov following the debate has shown that 72 percent of voters now do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president.

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