Photo: Alamy
Veteran pollster Nate Silver said on Tuesday that he believes President Donald Trump will win the presidential election next month.
Silver’s prediction was published in a New York Times op-ed that noted Silver’s “gut feeling” about the outcome of the showdown with Vice President Kamala Harris.
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver wrote.
“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’ So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” he continued.
Silver noted that Trump performed better than polls predicted in 2016 in his win over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and in his close loss to President Joe Biden in 2020.
The pollster also revealed that a Republican win could show that Democrats are no longer the clear favorite as more Americans are now identifying as Republicans.
“If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification — about as many people now identify as Republicans,” he wrote.
Silver said he may be wrong, as many polls include bias that indicates inaccurate levels of support for either Trump or Harris.
He also claimed that the election may not be the close finish many are expecting.
“It’s surprisingly likely that the election won’t be a photo finish,” Silver argued. “With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.”
The pollster’s predictions come as record numbers of early voters are showing up in several states, including swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina. Republican leaders continue to push for Americans to vote early, with Trump pushing his “swamp the vote” campaign to make the results “too big to rig.”
