Trump ramps up margins in the rustbelt states, breaks Democrats’ stronghold

by Alex Caldwell

Photo: Alamy

For nearly four decades, Democrats swept the rustbelt states in every presidential election and built what appeared to be an impenetrable blue wall throughout the midwest.

However, what many called impossible or a pipe dream was achieved by President Donald Trump in 2016—whose historic victory in the rustbelt over Democrat Hillary Clinton sent shockwaves across the nation.

The 45th president flipped both Michigan and Pennsylvania, which had not voted Republican in 26 years, and Wisconsin, which had not voted for Republican presidential candidates since President Reagan in 1984—marking the significance of Trump’s victory in all three rustbelt states.

Ultimately, President Trump fell short in these three states against Joe Biden in 2020, although the circumstances of this win have been widely debated by many on right.

Nonetheless, the latest rustbelt polling shows that the 45th president is on track to put these states back into his column this year—particularly Pennsylvania.

Biden is poised to lose his home state by two points in a head-to-head match-up with Trump (49 percent to 47 percent), according to the latest survey from Fox News.

Interestingly, Fox News’ presidential election poll from this same time four years ago predicted the exact same outcome of Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results, correctly forecasting Biden’s 1.2-point victory margin against Trump.

If the data holds, Trump will flip the state and win it with a bigger margin than those from the past two election cycles.

Furthermore, Trump also leads in polling averages for the state, according to Real Clear Politics. Although Pennsylvania’s early polls tend to favor Democrats, Trump lead in the averages by half a point (46.2 percent to 45.6 percent) on Friday, a conundrum for the Biden campaign.

In more bad news for the incumbent, 54 percent of Pennsylvanians disapprove of Biden, and a majority of residents said President Trump would fare better with handling issues like the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.

56 percent of respondents claimed that Trump would do a better job handling border security and immigration than Biden, and 54 percent responded that the 45th president would manage the economy better than his opponent.

Overall, 54 percent of Pennsylvanians responded that they disapprove of Biden, and just 14 percent responded that they are “getting ahead” better today than they were four years ago—a shockingly low figure.

In more bad news for Biden, Trump is also leading in rustbelt states Michigan and Wisconsin, which together represent a combined 25 electoral votes, and—tallied with Pennsylvania—would propel him to hold the first non-consecutive second term in office for a president since Grove Cleveland in 1892.

Trump currently leads his opponent by three points in Michigan, according to a recent poll from Quinnipiac, winning by a larger margin than Biden’s 2.8-point win in the state from 2020.

Among registered voters, Trump led with 48 percent support to Biden’s 45 percent in Michigan, according to the survey from Quinnipiac.

In Wisconsin, Trump led Biden by four points among registered voters, carrying 46 percent to 46 percent for Joe Biden, per the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.

For Trump and Biden, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are a must for winning a second term. If Biden were to lose all three of these, Trump would receive 279 Electoral College votes, assuming he holds onto the states he won in 2020.

Trump is seemingly in a great position to win a second term, leading in even more states than just the rustbelt. Joe Biden is behind his rival in all of Real Clear Politics’ polling averages in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, which would also expand Trump’s 306 electoral count from 2016 to 312 in 2024.

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