As the 2024 campaign season continues to heat up, President Donald Trump’s chances of taking back the White House have continued to skyrocket.
While more presidential candidates continue to pile into the crowd of Republicans, Trump’s lead has only moved up, with his poll numbers rising more than 20 points over his closest primary opponent since January.
A new poll from Harvard-Harris found that the 45th president led a field of eight primary opponents with 58 percent, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to announce his candidacy on Wednesday, placed in second with 16 percent.
Nine percent of respondents were undecided, while 21 percent supported a candidate besides Trump or DeSantis.
A May poll from Morning Consult also reported figures similar to Harvard-Harris, giving Trump 58 percent support to the governor’s second-place finish with 20 percent.
Former Vice President Mike Pence carried six percent, while both former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy tied with four percent.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who announced his campaign on Monday, tied for fifth with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., with only two percent, while Gov. Greg Abbott, R-Texas, carried one percent.
In the rustbelt states, which helped deliver Trump his historic victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, the 45th president held a seven-point lead over Biden in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (45 to 38 percent).
Meanwhile, DeSantis lost the rustbelt to Biden by four points (38 percent to 34 percent), according to the poll Trump had posted to his account on Truth Social.
Although a lot can happen before the Iowa caucuses next year, Trump’s upward polling trends appear to be too much for DeSantis to overcome. Trump has averaged a six percent gain in support each month since January, according to polling data from Harvard-Harris, while DeSantis has lost an average of four percent each month.
Furthermore, if DeSantis’s numbers in the rustbelt remain where they are currently and he loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, he would need to win every other swing state and more to defeat Biden in 2024.
In order to win, DeSantis would need to hold each state that Trump carried in 2020, flip Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and then pick off a blue state like Maine, New Hampshire, or Virginia, or Biden will remain in power.
For Trump, if he held all of the states he won in 2020, he could lose all of the sunbelt states and still win the election if he won three of the four states of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. If Trump lost two of the rustbelt states, he could pick up just one sunbelt state in order to win the Electoral College.